After watching bits and pieces of The Plan the other week, I began to wonder how the Colonials might’ve fared the attack on the colonies had the Colonial Defense Mainframe not crashed (as in the Cylons had really poor programming ground rules and their virus didn’t work as intended).
How would the two factions fare in an all-out fight? Let’s do the math, there were approximately 120 battlestars of various classes in the Colonial Fleet around the time of the attack. It’s never explicitly stated how many basestars the Cylons have at their disposal, but considering how quickly they nuked all the colonies in such a relatively short time span, you can presume they had a comparable number of capital ships as the Colonials.
I myself think that the Colonials might’ve come out on top, although I have no doubt they’d have taken heavy losses. No doubt some nukes would’ve gotten through their lines and probably hit some major population centers, but in the end I doubt very much that the Colonial population would’ve been whittled down to .000002% of its previous census.